Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
